3.23. Old-Age Dependency Ratio | The Good, The Bad and The Missing

3.23.

Old-Age Dependency Ratio

The number of elderly people (over 64 years old) relative to the number of working-age people (15-64 years). Figures are shown as the number of dependents per 100 working-age people. A value of 20% means that there are 20 people of old age for every 100 working-age people. 

Scale: Figures are shown as the number of dependents per 100 working-age people.

Old-Age Dependency Ratio
Direction of Change

THE OLD-AGE DEPENDENCY HAS RISEN STEADILY AND ACCELERATED AFTER 2010

The data shows a clear and uninterrupted rise in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s old-age dependency ratio from 1995 to 2023. Starting at roughly 32 dependents per 100 working-age people in the mid-1990s, the line remains relatively flat through the early 2000s before entering a phase of gradual but persistent increase after 2010. This upward trend becomes more pronounced from 2015 onwards, reflecting both population ageing and the structural effects of emigration, lower fertility, and shrinking cohorts of younger workers. By 2023, the ratio had risen to 33, marking its highest recorded level and signalling a demographic shift towards an older population profile. The trajectory suggests a long-term transition in which the economic and social burden carried by the working-age population is becoming progressively heavier.

Old-Age Dependency Ratio
Global Rank

Compared with all geographic entities listed in the Index

1995 2023
14.10 33.19
#67out of 237 #21 out of 238
Europe World
1995 2023 1995 2023
20.83 31.15 10.49 15.37

Note: Population-weighted averages for Europe and the world.

Regional Rank

Compared with six former Yugoslav countries and Albania

Country 1995 2023
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Croatia
Kosovo
Montenegro
North Macedonia
Serbia
Slovenia
9,98
14,10
20,02
7,43
14,29
13,18
20,07
17,58
24,45
33,19
36,16
13,96
27,19
26,74
35,26
33,43

Note: In 1995, Montenegro, Serbia, and Kosovo were part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

1995 (highest → lowest): >Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania, Kosovo.

2023 (highest → lowest): Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Kosovo

Conclusion

Taken together, the long upward curve and rising dependency underline that Bosnia and Herzegovina is entering a mature demographic stage in which ageing is no longer a future risk but an active, structural reality shaping labour supply, welfare sustainability and long-term planning needs.

Source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024) – processed by Our World in Data.